Washington: Recent fighting with Iran has further depleted the US military's already diminished stockpiles of advanced missile interceptors, potentially putting American troops at greater risk if hostilities resume, according to a new analysis.
Shrunken inventories of Patriot and THAAD interceptors may force the US and its Middle Eastern allies to take more risks to conserve those air defences, according to an analysis from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). American forces may, for example, launch fewer missiles against incoming Iranian drones and missiles, raising the chance of one getting through.
“That percentage may not go up a lot, but it goes up a little,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior adviser at CSIS, who co-authored the report with research associate Chris H Park.
Gen Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has told President Donald Trump that the state of the country's munitions stockpile could affect military operations in Iran, a US official said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations.
The Pentagon, however, pushed back against concerns that its capabilities have diminished.
“America's military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President's choosing,” Sean Parnell, the Pentagon's chief spokesman, said in a statement Tuesday.
While renewed strikes between the US and Iran have paused in recent days, Iran remains capable of launching deadly attacks. It fired missiles and drones at a base in Jordan on July 17, killing three US troops. Another American soldier was killed a day later in Iraq during a controlled detonation of an Iranian drone, bringing the war's toll to 18 US service members.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers last week that the war has cost an estimated $37.5 billion. The Pentagon is asking Congress for $67 billion to replenish the military, including funding for high-end munitions such as Patriots and THAADs, or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors.
The latest CSIS estimates for Patriot and THAAD interceptors are based on budget documents and other publicly released information.
The number of Patriot interceptors fell from 2,330 before the war to 1,030 when the April ceasefire took effect, CSIS estimated. Following the recent fighting, the stockpile is now estimated at between 759 and 827, a decrease of at least 65% from before the conflict.
The number of THAAD interceptors fell from 452 before the war to between 232 and 262 at the start of the April ceasefire. The US was able to replenish some of the inventory, bringing it to between 234 and 278 interceptors. But the stockpile remains at least 38% below its pre-war level.
Cancian said lower inventories could influence how the US military decides to shoot down incoming drones and missiles. As an example, American forces could fire two interceptors instead of three.
“It reduces the chances of interception, but you save a missile,” Cancian said.
Another possibility is that American forces could hold off firing interceptors if an Iranian missile is expected to miss its target and strike an area without people or infrastructure.
“They may just let it go and accept the fact that there might be some small amount of damage,” Cancian said.